Working Papers

The latest in economic research

2020

Show this section
33

Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications

Sylvain Leduc ? Kevin Moran ? Robert J. Vigfusson | October 2020

32

New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks

Andres Rodr?guez-Clare ? Mauricio Ulate ? Jose P. Vasquez | September 2020

31

Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory

Mauricio Ulate | September 2020

30

Competitive Effects of IPOS: Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions

Frank Packer ? Mark M. Spiegel | September 2020

29

A Simple Framework to Monitor Inflation

Adam Hale Shapiro | August 2020

28

Reservation Benefits: Assessing Job Acceptance Impacts of Increased UI Payments

| August 2020

27

Bank Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China

Xiaoming Li ? Zheng Liu ? Yuchao Peng ? Zhiwei Xu | October 2020

26

The Credit Line Channel

Daniel L. Greenwald ? John Krainer ? Pascal Paul | November 2020

25

The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market

Michael D. Bauer ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | July 2020

24

Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number

Shelby R. Buckman ? Reuven Glick ? Kevin J. Lansing ? Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau ? Lily M. Seitelman | July 2020

23

Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of COVID-19

Daniel J. Wilson | September 2020

22

Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future

John Fernald ? Robert Inklaar | June 2020

21

Average Is Good Enough: Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB

Robert Amano ? Stefano Gnocchi ? Sylvain Leduc ? Joel Wagner | June 2020

20

Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?

Robert E. Hall ? Marianna Kudlyak | May 2020

19

Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?

Sylvain Leduc ? Zheng Liu | May 2020

18

Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau ? Robert G. Valletta | September 2020

17

World Productivity: 1996 - 2014

Mehrdad Esfahani ? John G. Fernald ? Bart Hobijn | March 2020

16

Innovative Growth Accounting

Peter J. Klenow ? Huiyu Li | April 2020

15

Learning about Regime Change

Andrew Foerster ? Christian Matthes | April 2020

14

Capital Controls and Income Inequality

Zheng Liu ? Mark M. Spiegel ? Jingyi Zhang | September 2020

13

The Costs of Payment Uncertainty in Healthcare Markets

Abe Dunn ? Joshua D. Gottlieb ? Adam Shapiro ? Pietro Tebaldi | April 2020

12

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier

James S. Cloyne ? Oscar Jorda ? Alan M. Taylor | September 2020

11

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | August 2020

10

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach

Gianluca Benigno ? Andrew Foerster ? Christopher Otrok ? Alessandro Rebucci, | October 2020

09

Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

Oscar Jorda ? Sanjay R. Singh ? Alan M. Taylor | June 2020

08

Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence

Lukas Hoesch ? Barbara Rossi ? Tatevik Sekhposyan | March 2020

07

Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy

Pascal Paul | September 2020

06

The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the “Fed Information Effect”

Michael D. Bauer ? Eric T. Swanson | February 2020

05

Why Is Current Unemployment So Low?

Andreas Hornstein ? Marianna Kudlyak | February 2020

04

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?

Giancarlo Corsetti ? Luca Dedola ? Sylvain Leduc | February 2020

03

The Transmission of Monetary Policy under the Microscope

Martin Blomhoff Holm ? Pascal Paul ? Andreas Tischbirek | April 2020

02

Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

Francis X. Diebold ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | January 2020

01

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

òscar Jordà ? Sanjay R. Singh ? Alan M. Taylor | January 2020

2019

Hide this section
29

Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed

Thomas C. Buchmueller ? Helen Levy ? Robert G. Valletta | December 2019

28

The Safety Premium of Safe Assets

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Nikola Mirkov | November 2019

27

Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Flatter Phillips Curve

Peter Lihn Jorgensen ? Kevin J. Lansing | November 2019

26

Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk

Robert Amano ? Thomas J. Carter ? Sylvain Leduc | October 2019

25

Taxing Billionaires: Estate Taxes and the Geographical Location of the Ultra-Wealthy

Enrico Moretti ? Daniel J. Wilson | October 2019

24

BLP Estimation Using Laplace Transformation and Overlapping Simulation Draws

Han Hong ? Huiyu Li ? Jessie Li | October 2019

23

Corporate Yields and Sovereign Yields

Julia Bevilaqua ? Galina B. Hale ? Eric Tallman | September 2019

22

Complexity of Global Banks and Their Foreign Operation in Hong Kong

Simon H. Kwan ? Kelvin Ho ? Edward Tan | September 2019

21

Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

Mauricio Ulate | September 2019

20

Riders on the Storm

òscar Jordà ? Alan M. Taylor | September 2019

19

Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data

John G. Fernald ? Eric Hsu ? Mark M. Spiegel | August 2019

18

R* and the Global Economy

Reuven Glick | August 2019

17

Robots or Workers? A Macro Analysis of Automation and Labor Markets

Sylvain Leduc ? Zheng Liu | November 2020

16

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

Andrew Foerster ? Andreas Hornstein ? Pierre-Daniel Sarte ? Mark Watson | July 2020

15

Assessing Abenomics: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Japanese Government Bonds

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Mark M. Spiegel | October 2019

14

Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Thomas M. Mertens ? John C. Williams | August 2019

13

Using Brexit to Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities

Bart Hobijn ? Fernanda Nechio ? Adam Hale Shapiro | April 2019

12

Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Michael Bauer ? Aeimit Lakdawala ? Philippe Mueller | December 2019

11

A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

Philippe Aghion ? Antonin Bergeaud ? Timo Boppart ? Peter J. Klenow ? Huiyu Li | August 2019

10

The Total Risk Premium Puzzle

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | March 2019

09

A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks

Zheng Liu ? Pengfei Wang ? Tao Zha | March 2019

08

Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Eric Fischer ? Patrick Shultz | December 2019

07

Aggregate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment and Demographic Trends

Andreas Hornstein ? Marianna Kudlyak | February 2019

06

Tracking Financial Fragility

Paolo Giordani ? Simon Kwan | February 2019

05

Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics

Robert E. Hall ? Marianna Kudlyak | January 2020

04

The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis

Giancarlo Corsetti ? Barry Eichengreen ? Galina Hale ? Eric Tallman | February 2019

03

Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches

Jason Choi ? Andrew Foerster | September 2019

02

Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis

Adam Hale Shapiro ? Daniel Wilson | November 2019

01

Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates

Thomas M. Mertens ? John C. Williams | June 2019

2018

Hide this section
15

Inflation Globally

òscar Jordà ? Fernanda Nechio | December 2018

14

Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?

Kevin J. Lansing ? Stephen F. LeRoy ? Jun Ma | September 2020

13

Efficiency in Sequential Labor and Goods Markets

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau ? Etienne Wasmer ? Philippe Weil | September 2018

12

Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs

Troy Davig ? Andrew Foerster | September 2018

11

Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS

Carlos Carvalho ? Fernanda Nechio ? Tiago Tristao | July 2019

10

Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China

Zheng Liu ? Mark M. Spiegel ? Jingyi Zhang | May 2020

09

Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Jose A. Lopez ? Paul L. Mussche | May 2019

08

Real Business Cycles, Animal Spirits, and Stock Market Valuation

Kevin J. Lansing | August 2018

07

Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence

Jose A. Lopez ? Andrew K. Rose ? Mark M. Spiegel | June 2018

06

Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I

Jose A. Lopez ? Kris James Mitchener | June 2018

05

Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor ? Felix Ward | May 2018

04

Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier

Bill Dupor ? Marios Karabarbounis ? Marianna Kudlyak ? M. Saif Mehkari | January 2019

03

What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

Thomas M. Mertens ? John C. Williams | September 2020

02

U.S. Monetary Policy and Fluctuations of International Bank Lending

Stefan Avdjiev ? Galina Hale | January 2018

01

Monitoring Banking System Connectedness with Big Data

Galina Hale ? Jose A. Lopez | April 2018

2017

Hide this section
25

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015

Oscar Jorda ? Katharina Knoll ? Dmitry Kuvshinov ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | December 2017

24

Endogenous Forecast Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound

Kevin J. Lansing | November 2019

23

Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises

Pascal Paul | March 2020

22

A Macroeconomic Model with Occasional Financial Crises

Pascal Paul | November 2019

21

Term Structure Analysis with Big Data

Martin M. Andreasen ? Jens H. E. Christensen ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | September 2017

20

Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories

Marianna Kudlyak ? Fabian Lange | January 2018

19

Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market

Lamont Black ? John Krainer ? Joseph Nichols | September 2017

18

Leaning Against the Credit Cycle

Paolo Gelain ? Kevin J. Lansing ? Gisle J. Natvik | August 2017

17

Calibrating Macroprudential Policy to Forecasts of Financial Stability

Scott A. Brave ? Jose A. Lopez | August 2017

16

Interest Rates Under Falling Stars

Michael D. Bauer ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | October 2019

15

Interest-Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations

Zheng Liu ? Pengfei Wang ? Zhiwei Xu | January 2020

14

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009

John G. Fernald ? Robert E. Hall ? James H. Stock ? Mark W. Watson | June 2017

13

Clearing the Fog: The Predictive Power of Weather for Employment Reports and their Asset Price Responses

Daniel J. Wilson | September 2017

12

Approximating Multisector New Keynesian Models

Carlos Carvalho ? Fernanda Nechio | September 2017

11

The TIPS Liquidity Premium

Martin M. Andreasen ? Jens H. E. Christensen ? Simon Riddell | July 2020

10

Is There an On-the-Run Premium in TIPS?

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Jose A. Lopez ? Patrick Shultz, | September 2017

09

The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

Pascal Paul | April 2019

08

International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach

Mark M. Spiegel ? Andrew Tai | April 2017

07

A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | February 2019

06

Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis

Oscar Jorda ? Bjorn Richter ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | March 2017

05

Generalized Matching Functions and Resource Utilization Indices for the Labor Market

Andreas Hornstein ? Marianna Kudlyak | February 2017

04

Missing Growth from Creative Destruction

Philippe Aghion ? Antonin Bergeaud ? Timo Boppart ? Peter J. Klenow ? Huiyu Li | August 2018

03

De-leveraging or De-risking? How Banks Cope with Loss

Rhys M. Bidder ? John R. Krainer ? Adam H. Shapiro | December 2019

02

The Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | May 2018

01

Measuring News Sentiment

Adam Hale Shapiro ? Moritz Sudhof ? Daniel Wilson | March 2020

2016

Hide this section
31

Intergenerational Linkages in Household Credit

Andra C. Ghent ? Marianna Kudlyak | December 2016

30

Measuring the Effects of Dollar Appreciation on Asia: A Favar Approach

Zheng Liu ? Mark M. Spiegel ? Andrew Tai | November 2016

29

“Conditional PPP” and Real Exchange Rate Convergence in the Euro Area

Paul R. Bergin ? Reuven Glick ? Jyh-Lin Wu | October 2016

28

Mortgage Selection: Interactive Effects of House Price Appreciation and Mortgage Pricing Components

Frederick Furlong ? Yelena Takhtamanova ? David Lang | March 2019

27

Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade

Reuven Glick | October 2016

26

Stress Testing with Misspecified Models

Rhys Bidder ? Raffaella Giacomini ? Andrew McKenna | September 2016

25

FDI Effects on the Labor Market of Host Countries

Galina Hale ? Mingzhi Xu | September 2016

24

Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort

Andreas Hornstein ? Marianna Kudlyak | December 2016

23

Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | September 2016

22

Revisiting the Behavior of Small and Large Firms during the 2008 Financial Crisis

Marianna Kudlyak ? Juan M. Sanchez | December 2016

21

The Impact of Weather on Local Employment: Using Big Data on Small Places

Daniel J. Wilson | June 2017

20

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

Olivier Coibion ? Yuriy Gorodnichenko ? Marianna Kudlyak ? John Mondragon | August 2016

19

Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States

Jess Benhabib ? Mark M. Spiegel | October 2017

18

Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?

John G. Fernald | August 2016

17

Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both?

Robert G. Valletta | August 2016

16

The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment

Tarek A. Hassan ? Thomas M. Mertens | August 2016

15

A Risk-based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization

Tarek A. Hassan ? Thomas M. Mertens ? Tony Zhang | May 2020

14

The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth

Canyon Bosler ? Mary C. Daly ? John G. Fernald ? Bart Hobijn | July 2016

13

The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration

R. Jason Faberman ? Marianna Kudlyak | July 2016

12

A Portfolio Model of Quantitative Easing

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Signe Krogstrup | February 2018

11

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

Kathryn Holston ? Thomas Laubach ? John C. Williams | December 2016

10

Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy

Chun Chang ? Zheng Liu ? Mark M. Spiegel ? Jingyi Zhang | March 2018

09

The Weak Job Recovery in a Macro Model of Search and Recruiting Intensity

Sylvain Leduc ? Zheng Liu | February 2019

08

The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity

Gilbert Cette ? John G. Fernald ? Benoit Mojon | April 2016

07

Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?

John G. Fernald ? J. Christina Wang | April 2016

06

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Monetary Policy

Carlos Carvalho ? Eric Hsu ? Fernanda Nechio | December 2016

05

Demographics and Real Interest Rates: Inspecting the Mechanism

Carlos Carvalho ? Andrea Ferrero ? Fernanda Nechio | April 2016

04

The Intensive and Extensive Margins of Real Wage Adjustment

Mary C. Daly ? Bart Hobijn | March 2016

03

Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?

David M. Byrne ? John G. Fernald ? Marshall B. Reinsdorf | March 2016

02

Credit-Fuelled Bubbles

Antonio Doblas-Madrid ? Kevin J. Lansing | March 2016

01

Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects

Galina Hale ? Tumer Kapan ? Camelia Minoiu | June 2017

2015

Hide this section
22

Disentangling Goods, Labor, and Credit Market Frictions in Three European Economies

Thomas Brzustowski ? Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau ? Etienne Wasmer | December 2015

21

Not So Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock

Tarek A. Hassan ? Thomas M. Mertens ? Tony Zhang | December 2015

20

Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy

Vasco Curdia ? Michael Woodford | December 2015

19

Cyclical and Market Determinants of Involuntary Part-Time Employment

Robert G. Valletta ? Leila Bengali ? Catherine van der List | March 2018

18

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar: Conventional Signs, Unconventional Magnitudes

Reuven Glick ? Sylvain Leduc | November 2015

17

Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution

Bart Hobijn ? Fernanda Nechio | October 2017

16

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux

Thomas Laubach ? John C. Williams | October 2015

15

Robust Bond Risk Premia

Michael D. Bauer ? James D. Hamilton | May 2017

14

Aggregation Level in Stress Testing Models

Galina Hale ? John Krainer ? Erin McCarthy | September 2015

13

Robust Stress Testing

Rhys Bidder ? Andrew McKenna | September 2015

12

Is China Fudging its Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data

John G. Fernald ? Eric Hsu ? Mark M. Spiegel | September 2015

11

Currency Unions and Trade: A Post‐EMU Mea Culpa

Reuven Glick ? Andrew K. Rose | July 2015

10

Leveraged Bubbles

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | August 2015

09

Bond Vigilantes and Inflation

Andrew K. Rose ? Mark M. Spiegel | August 2015

08

Protecting Working-Age People with Disabilities: Experiences of Four Industrialized Nations

Richard V. Burkhauser ? Mary C. Daly ? Nicolas Ziebarth | June 2015

07

Physician Competition and the Provision of Care: Evidence from Heart Attacks

Abe Dunn ? Adam Hale Shapiro | May 2015

06

The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists

Enrico Moretti ? Daniel J. Wilson | March 2017

05

Domestic Bond Markets and Inflation

Andrew K. Rose ? Mark M. Spiegel | February 2015

04

Does Medicare Part D Save Lives?

Abe Dunn ? Adam Hale Shapiro | September 2015

03

The Effect of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence from the 2012-2013 Phase-Out

Henry S. Farber ? Jesse Rothstein ? Robert G. Valletta | January 2015

02

Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse-Engineering Approach

Paolo Gelain ? Kevin J. Lansing ? Gisle J. Natvik | February 2018

01

Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models

Michael D. Bauer ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2016

2014

Hide this section
28

Betting the House

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | December 2014

27

A Dynamic Model of Price Signaling, Consumer Learning, and Price Adjustment

Matthew Osborne ? Adam Hale Shapiro | November 2014

26

Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment

William A. Branch ? Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau ? Guillaume Rocheteau | November 2014

25

The International Transmission of Shocks through the Lens of Foreign Banks in Hong Kong

Simon Kwan ? Eric T.C. Wong ? Cho-hoi Hui | August 2019

24

Shopping Time

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau ? Etienne Wasmer ? Shutian Zeng | September 2014

23

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | September 2014

22

Explaining Exchange Rate Anomalies in a Model with Taylor-rule Fundamentals and Consistent Expectations

Kevin J. Lansing ? Jun Ma | June 2016

21

The Extent and Cyclicality of Career Changes: Evidence for the U.K.

Carlos Carrillo-Tudela ? Bart Hobijn ? Powen She ? Ludo Visschers | August 2014

20

Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending

Eugenio Cerutti ? Galina Hale ? Camelia Minoiu | August 2014

19

The Rise in Home Currency Issuance

Galina Hale ? Peter Jones ? Mark M. Spiegel | May 2016

18

Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves

Jens H.E. Christensen ? Signe Krogstrup | June 2016

17

Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models

Carlos Carvalho ? Fernanda Nechio ? Fang Yao | April 2019

16

Long-Run Risk is the Worst-Case Scenario

Rhys Bidder ? Ian Dew-Becker | May 2016

15

Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession

John G. Fernald | June 2014

14

A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment

Glenn D. Rudebusch ? John C. Williams | May 2014

13

Recent Extensions of U.S. Unemployment Benefits: Search Responses in Alternative Labor Market States

Robert G. Valletta | May 2014

12

Has U.S. Monetary Policy Tracked the Efficient Interest Rate?

Vasco Curdia ? Andrea Ferrero ? Ging Cee Ng ? Andrea Tambalotti | May 2014

11

Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Mary C. Daly ? John G. Fernald ? Oscar Jorda ? Fernanda Nechio | April 2014

10

The Euro and the Geography of International Debt Flows

Galina Hale ? Maurice Obstfeld | December 2014

09

Inflation Expectations and the News

Michael D. Bauer | March 2014

08

Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand Versus Supply in the Wake of the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis

Reint Gropp ? John Krainer ? Elizabeth Laderman | February 2014

07

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model

John G. Fernald ? Mark M. Spiegel ? Eric T. Swanson | February 2014

06

Scraping By: Income and Program Participation After the Loss of Extended Unemployment Benefits

Jesse Rothstein ? Robert G. Valletta | April 2017

05

Mortgage Choice in the Housing Boom: Impacts of House Price Appreciation and Borrower Type

Frederick T. Furlong ? Yelena Takhtamanova ? David Lang | March 2014

04

Breaking the “Iron Rice Bowl:" Evidence of Precautionary Savings from the Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Reform

Hui He ? Feng Huang ? Zheng Liu ? Dongming Zhu | November 2017

03

Can Spanned Term Structure Factors Drive Stochastic Yield Volatility?

Jens H.E. Christensen ? Jose A. Lopez ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | January 2014

02

The Future of U.S. Economic Growth

John G. Fernald ? Charles I. Jones | January 2014

01

Modernization and Discrete Measures of Democracy

Jess Benhabib ? Alejandro Corvalen ? Mark M. Spiegel | January 2014

2013

Hide this section
40

Disability Benefit Growth and Disability Reform in the U.S.: Lessons from Other OECD Nations

Richard V. Burkhauser ? Mary C. Daly ? Duncan McVicar ? Roger Wilkins | December 2013

39

Modeling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution?

Jens H.E. Christensen ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | December 2013

38

A Probability-Based Stress Test of Federal Reserve Assets and Income

Jens H.E. Christensen ? Jose A. Lopez ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | December 2013

37

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences

Oscar Jorda ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | February 2014

36

Physician Payments Under Health Care Reform

Abe Dunn ? Adam Hale Shapiro | March 2014

35

The Impact of Reserves Practices on Bank Opacity

Giuliano Iannotta ? Simon H. Kwan | July 2014

34

A Regime-Switching Model of the Yield Curve at the Zero Bound

Jens H. E. Christensen | January 2016

33

Optimal Monetary Policy and Capital Account Restrictions in a Small Open Economy

Zheng Liu ? Mark M. Spiegel | February 2015

32

Shocks and Adjustments

Mary C. Daly ? John G. Fernald ? Oscar Jorda ? and Fernanda Nechio | July 2017

31

Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities

Carlos Carvalho ? Fernanda Nechio | August 2016

30

Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia

Eric T. Swanson | September 2014

29

Frequency Shifting

Rhys Bidder | March 2018

28

Doubts and Variability: A Robust Perspective on Exotic Consumption Series

Rhys Bidder ? Matthew E. Smith | January 2018

27

The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share

Michael Elsby ? Bart Hobijn ? Aysegül Sahin | September 2013

26

Does Quantitative Easing Affect Market Liquidity?

Jens H. E. Christensen ? James M. Gillan | December 2018

25

The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy

òscar Jordà ? Alan M. Taylor | September 2013

24

Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited

Joshua D. Angrist ? òscar Jordà ? Guido M. Kuersteiner | August 2013

23

Temptation and Self-Control: Some Evidence and Applications

Kevin X. D. Huang ? Zheng Liu ? Qi Zhu | August 2013

22

Land Prices and Unemployment

Zheng Liu ? Jianjun Miao ? Tao Zha | March 2016

21

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany

Eric T. Swanson ? John C. Williams | August 2013

20

The Effect of Capital Controls and Prudential FX Measures on Options-Implied Exchange Rate Stability

Marius del Giudice Rodriguez ? Thomas Wu | September 2013

19

Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce

òscar Jordà | July 2013

18

Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound

Michael D. Bauer ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2015

17

State Incentives for Innovation, Star Scientists and Jobs: Evidence from Biotech

Enrico Moretti ? Daniel J. Wilson | July 2013

16

Are State Governments Roadblocks to Federal Stimulus? Evidence on the Flypaper Effect of Highway Grants in the 2009 Recovery Act

Sylvain Leduc ? Daniel J. Wilson | April 2016

15

A Defense of Moderation in Monetary Policy

John C. Williams | July 2013

14

Bank Linkages and International Trade

Galina Hale ? Christopher Candelaria ? Julian Caballero ? Sergey Borisov | February 2016

13

Inequality and Mortality: New Evidence from U.S. County Panel Data

Mary C. Daly ? Daniel J. Wilson | May 2013

12

China’s Financial Linkages with Asia and the Global Financial Crisis

Reuven Glick ? Michael M. Hutchison | May 2013

11

The Effects of Unconventional and Conventional U.S. Monetary Policy on the Dollar

Reuven Glick ? Sylvain Leduc | May 2013

10

Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?

Sylvain Leduc ? Mark M. Spiegel | May 2013

09

Do Extended Unemployment Benefits Lengthen Unemployment Spells? Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market

Henry S. Farber ? Robert G. Valletta | April 2013

08

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve

Mary C. Daly ? Bart Hobijn | January 2014

07

Estimating Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models with Near-Zero Yields

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | June 2013

06

Persistence of Regional Inequality in China

Christopher Candelaria ? Mary C. Daly ? Galina Hale | March 2013

05

On the Importance of the Participation Margin for Market Fluctuations

Michael Elsby ? Bart Hobijn ? Aysegül Sahin | February 2013

04

Price Setting in an Innovative Market

Adam Copeland ? Adam Hale Shapiro | March 2013

03

House Prices, Expectations, and Time-Varying Fundamentals

Paolo Gelain ? Kevin J. Lansing | May 2014

02

Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles

Vasco Cúrdia ? Daria Finocchiaro | October 2012

01

Rare Shocks, Great Recessions

Vasco Cúrdia ? Marco Del Negro ? Daniel L. Greenwald | January 2013

2012

Hide this section
26

Decomposing Medical-Care Expenditure Growth

Abe Dunn ? Eli Liebman ? Adam Hale Shapiro | November 2012

25

House Lock and Structural Unemployment

Robert G. Valletta | April 2013

24

Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession

Bart Hobijn ? Aysegül Sahin | July 2013

23

Top Incomes, Rising Inequality, and Welfare

Kevin J. Lansing ? Agnieszka Markiewicz | June 2016

22

The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs

Han Chen ? Vasco Cúrdia ? Andrea Ferrero | October 2012

21

The Economic Security Index: A New Measure for Research and Policy Analysis

Jacob S. Hacker ? Gregory Huber ? Austin Nichols ? Philipp Rehm ? Mark Schlesinger ? Robert G. Valletta ? Stuart Craig | October 2012

20

Housing Supply and Foreclosures

William Hedberg ? John Krainer | September 2012

19

A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity

John Fernald | April 2014

18

Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession

John G. Fernald | September 2012

17

Risk Aversion, Risk Premia, and the Labor Margin with Generalized Recursive Preferences

Eric T. Swanson | September 2013

16

Relative Status and Well-Being: Evidence from U.S. Suicide Deaths

Mary C. Daly ? Daniel J. Wilson ? Norman J. Johnson | September 2012

15

Infrastructure Spending as Fiscal Stimulus: Assessing the Evidence

Sylvain Leduc ? Daniel J. Wilson | February 2016

14

Mussa Redux and Conditional PPP

Paul R. Bergin ? Reuven Glick ? Jyh-Lin Wu | September 2012

13

Capital Controls and Optimal Chinese Monetary Policy

Chun Chang ? Zheng Liu ? Mark M. Spiegel | January 2015

12

International Channels of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy

Michael D. Bauer ? Christopher J. Neely | December 2013

11

House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy

Paolo Gelain ? Kevin J. Lansing ? Caterina Mendicino | February 2013

10

Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks

Sylvain Leduc ? Zheng Liu | May 2015

09

The Industry-Occupation Mix of U.S. Job Openings and Hires

Bart Hobijn | July 2012

08

Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models with Capital

Carlos Carvalho ? Fernanda Nechio | July 2012

07

Pricing Deflation Risk with U.S. Treasury Yields

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Jose A. Lopez ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | July 2014

06

The Response of Interest Rates to U.S. and U.K. Quantitative Easing

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | May 2012

05

Empirical Simultaneous Prediction Regions for Path-Forecasts

òscar Jordá ? Malte Knuppel ? Massimiliano Marcellino | May 2012

04

Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment

Sylvain Leduc ? Daniel J. Wilson | June 2012

03

Lost in Translation? Teacher Training and Outcomes in High School Economics Classes

Robert G. Valletta ? K. Jody Hoff ? Jane S. Lopus | April 2013

02

Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

Eric T. Swanson ? John C. Williams | January 2013

01

Do People Understand Monetary Policy?

Carlos Carvalho ? Fernanda Nechio | April 2014

2011

Hide this section
30

Central Bank Announcements of Asset Purchases and the Impact on Global Financial and Commodity Markets

Reuven Glick ? Sylvain Leduc | December 2011

29

The Labor Market in the Great Recession: An Update

Michael Elsby ? Bart Hobijn ? Aysegül Sahin ? Robert G. Valletta | October 2011

28

A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity: Spain, 1850-2011

Travis J. Berge ? òscar Jordà | November 2011

27

When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises

òscar Jordà ? Moritz Schularick ? Alan M. Taylor | October 2012

26

Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Zheng Liu ? Pengfei Wang ? Tao Zha | September 2011

25

Prepayment and Delinquency in the Mortgage Crisis Period

John Krainer ? Elizabeth Laderman | September 2011

24

Evidence and Implications of Regime Shifts: Time-Varying Effects of the U.S. and Japanese Economies on House Prices in Hawaii

John Krainer ? James A. Wilcox | July 2012

23

Dissecting Aggregate Real Wage Fluctuations: Individual Wage Growth and the Composition Effect

Mary C. Daly ? Bart Hobijn ? Theodore S. Wiles | May 2012

22

Currency Crises

Reuven Glick ? Michael M. Hutchison | September 2011

21

The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases

Michael D. Bauer ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | April 2013

20

Nominal Interest Rates and the News

Michael D. Bauer | January 2014

19

Gender Ratios at Top PhD Programs in Economics

Galina Hale ? Tali Regev | August 2011

18

Dollar Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements during the Global Financial Crisis

Andrew K. Rose ? Mark M. Spiegel | August 2011

17

New Evidence on Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment

Zinzhu Chen ? Prakash Kannan ? Prakash Loungani ? Bharat Trehan | May 2011

16

Could the U.S. Treasury Benefit from Issuing More TIPS?

Jens H. E. Christensen ? James M. Gillan | June 2012

15

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in a Leveraged Economy

Sylvain Leduc ? Jean-Marc Natal | April 2015

14

Bank Relationships, Business Cycles, and Financial Crises

Galina Hale | July 2011

13

The Impact of Creditor Protection on Stock Prices in the Presence of Credit Crunches

Galina Hale ? Assaf Razin ? Hui Tong | April 2011

12

Correcting Estimation Bias in Dynamic Term Structure Models

Michael D. Bauer ? Glenn D. Rudebusch ? Jing (Cynthia) Wu | April 2012

11

Trust in Public Institutions over the Business Cycle

Betsey Stevenson ? Justin Wolfers | March 2011

10

Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields

Jens H. E. Christensen ? Jose A. Lopez ? Glenn D. Rudebusch | February 2011

09

Reestablishing the Income-Democracy Nexus

Jess Benhabib ? Alejandro Corvalen ? Mark M. Spiegel | February 2011

08

Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2

Eric T. Swanson | February 2011

07

Asset Pricing with Concentrated Ownership of Capital and Distribution Shocks

Kevin J. Lansing | August 2015

06

The Wage Premium Puzzle and the Quality of Human Capital

Milton H. Marquis ? Bharat Trehan ? Wuttipan Tantivong | February 2011

05

A Rising Natural Rate of Unemployment: Transitory or Permanent?

Mary C. Daly ? Bart Hobijn ? Robert G. Valletta | September 2011

04

Evidence on Financial Globalization and Crisis: Capital Raisings

Galina Hale | January 2011

03

Restrictions on Risk Prices in Dynamic Term Structure Models

Michael D. Bauer | March 2016

02

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

Andrew K. Rose ? Mark M. Spiegel | January 2011

01

Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?

Hess Chung ? Jean-Philippe Laforte ? David L. Reifschneider ? John C. Williams | January 2011

2010

Hide this section
32

Which Industries are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?

Regis Barnichon ? Michael Elsby ? Bart Hobijn ? Aysegül Sahin | October 2011

31

The State of the Safety Net in the Post-Welfare Reform Era

Marianne Bitler ? Hilary W. Hoynes | October 2010

30

The Happiness-Suicide Paradox

Mary C. Daly ? Andrew J. Oswald ? Daniel J. Wilson ? Stephen Wu | February 2010

29

On Variance Bounds for Asset Price Changes

Kevin J. Lansing | May 2015

28

Subjective Well-Being, Income, Economic Development and Growth

Daniel W. Sacks ? Betsey Stevenson ? Justin Wolfers | September 2010

27

The 2007-09 Financial Crisis and Bank Opaqueness

Mark J. Flannery ? Simon H. Kwan ? Mahendrarajah Nimalendran | September 2010

26

Foreign Stock Holdings: The Role of Information

Fernanda Nechio | September 2014

25

Job Creation Tax Credits, Fiscal Foresight, and Job Growth: Evidence from U.S. States

Robert S. Chirinko ? Daniel J. Wilson | November 2016

24

Risk Aversion, Investor Information, and Stock Market Volatility

Kevin J. Lansing ? Stephen F. LeRoy | April 2014

23

Entry Dynamics and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-Through

Christopher J. Gust ? Sylvain Leduc ? Robert J. Vigfusson | September 2010

22

Credit Constraints and Self-Fulfilling Business Cycles

Zheng Liu ? Pengfei Wang | September 2011

21

If You Try, You'll Get By: Chinese Private Firms' Efficiency Gains from Overcoming Financial Constraints

Galina Hale ? Cheryl Long | January 2011

20

Asset Class Diversification and Delegation of Responsibilities between Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds

Joshua Aizenman ? Reuven Glick | September 2010

19

China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate

Aaron Mehrotra ? José R. Sánchez-Fung | September 2010

18

Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore

John G. Fernald ? Brent Neiman | May 2010

17

Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

Daniel J. Wilson | October 2011

16

Technology Diffusion and Postwar Growth

Diego Comin ? Bart Hobijn | June 2010